Over the last few months, things have changed quite a bit.

Earlier in the year, the general sense was that while there were issues to contend with – like inflation – the delicate balance between economic stability, growth, a return to normalcy post-COVID, and changes in monetary policy could be effectively juggled and maintained without pushing the economy into recession.  In other words, the feeling was that while there were a lot of moving parts, the situation was under control.

War and its attendant implications then upended the perception of balance and stability, and there were knock-on effects, most notably fears of an inflationary shock and the potential for policy missteps that could tip the economy into recession, perhaps even purposely.  The end result is that a situation that seemed under control two months ago feels much less so today.

The start of the year was perhaps best characterized by Tom Petty’s Into The Great Wide Open – maybe some struggle along the way but also full of possibilities (mostly positive), but just a short time later, we’ve now somehow morphed into feeling as though It’s The End Of The World As We Know It, and not quite feeling sure if, at the end of the day, we’ll even feel ok, let alone fine.